Draft Value Rankings

Hello everyone! This is my first outing in actual content. Please be gentle.

Skip the methodology if you’re not into nerd shit. You’ve been warned.

Methodology

How does one determine value of a player in RD2L? That’s a question I asked myself today while sitting on the shitter due to a lack of things to do on my last day before uni seriously kicked off. Well, hell if I know. So I decided to get a team rankings based on a metric with no definition. If something has no definition — you make it up. And my definition was:

A valuable player is a player who performs better than their Draft MMR in an environment similar to RD2L.

I had two main criteria to put into this assessment: success and experience. Success is determined by winrate and experience is determined by amount of games. In order to make this assessment even better I decided to give points in 3 different categories: Very High Skill Score, High Skill Score and Normal Skill Score.

Success Factor

In total, there were 10000 flat points distributed among these categories. Very High Skill had 7500 points spread across overall games and recent games equally. High Skill had 1750 points and Normal Skill had 750 points allocated to them. Your winrate in those skill brackets determined how many of the points you would get.

Experience Factor

In a league with many different types of players it is really hard to come by a decent metric to properly represent experience. The way I measured that is I averaged all the data for all the players and multiplied the flat success score by the ratio of a player’s number of matches in a skill category with the average in that category. That way players with similar winrates but radically different numbers of games will be differentiated in the rankings.

Value Factor

However, with these metrics the higher MMR players are obviously going to have a higher score than lower MMR players. How do we account for players overperforming? Well, I used this equation:

(Player MMR — Highest MMR)²/(Average MMR)²

and then transformed the range of numbers from 0 -1.08 to 1–5 to get multipliers for score:

(Current Score/Maximum Current Score)*4+1

giving me a multiplier for the combination of the two previous Factors.

Rankings

Well, with the nerd shit out of the way I can actually start with the value rankings. However, to preface this I need to say a few things:

1. People who are not on the Players page on the website got 0 for their value. I think the only affected players are Gracious Papi, BB.347 and Ash The Toxic.
2. All the data is based off of Dotabuff. Some players may have some matches hidden. Those players are stinky.
3. The MMR is based on the Draft Sheet.
4. This is a ranking of the Draft. It is NOT a power ranking. This shows which captains, in my opinion, did the best job during the draft.
5. This ranking does not take into account captain value. This was a concious decision because you can’t exactly draft yourself.

*(asterisk) denotes teams affected by point 1.

A+ Tier

1. MOCA — 12481 APV (Average Player Value)

2. seven thirty –10994 APV

3. deadprez — 10457 APV

4. velvelvel — 10263 APV

A Tier

5. steven — 9632 APV

6. Kalivunkka — 9592 APV

7. Sharingan — 8724 APV*

8. Khilasaurus — 7770 APV

B Tier

9. StarEnd 2.0–7337 APV

10. Burrahobbit — 7337 APV

11. Charles the Baboon — 7120 APV

12. JIVEE — 7001 APV

13. skaterx7–6718 APV

14. aeos — 6412 APV

15. Lucky — 6408 APV

16. StonedSpirit — 6321 APV

C Tier

17. JonSquid — 6148 APV

18. MAPPO — 6103 APV

19. Lemonardo — 6013 APV

20. Give up dude — 6008 APV

21. Jabinskiz — 5785 APV

22. BBTM — 5734 APV

23. TheMantis — 5257 APV

24. UltraGunner — 5174 APV*

D Tier

25. Maximus — 5159 APV

26. Polo5885 — 4991 APV

27. MGHappyhobo — 4948 APV

28. DoomCow33–4777 APV

29. FatSloth — 4669 APV

30. spidez — 4626 APV

31. PrinceMeerkat92 — 4589 APV

32. Clueless — 4402 APV

F Tier

33. FlyingNightmare™ — 4396 APV

34. CRAP — 4287 APV

35. Clare ❤ Teresa — 4056 APV

36. Jenny Death — 3563 APV

37. BoX — 2016 APV*

38. bsvhsvj — 1850 APV

Final Words

I hope that I entertained you for a bit. Krappa.

In all actuality, I am going to do a part 2 on the weekend with power rankings and my opinions on these statistics. I’m way too tired, I have classes tomorrow and half my keys on my desktop keyboard broke due to me spilling some rancid liquid on it. For now, I want to ask you to do stuff!

I would love to hear feedback and your opinion on my evaluation of this draft. Do you think I should include some other factors? Do you have suggestions for writing these types of articles? Do you remember the 3 million dollar Dream Coil?

Contact me via my discord, Akono#8098!