Season 18 Value Rankings 2: Electric Boogaloo (with Power Rankings!)
Hello everyone!
I promised part 2 to come out during the weekend, but I felt kinda tired after our games and then didn’t sleep for like 8 hours, so I ended up oversleeping Uni and waking up at 5pm. That’s why I am doing content right now!
Hope you enjoy!
Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1enyaPnx9R94brhQf7NeUgvN_YY9tiIIa-bR27FNNw-I/edit?usp=sharing
Algorithmic Power Rankings
These are the rankings my algorithm came up with when removing the Value Factor and adding in Captains into the pool.
A small disclaimer:
- All the data is based off of Dotabuff. Some players may have some matches hidden or used smurfs to register. Those players are stinky.
- The MMR is based on the Draft Sheet.
- This ranking is based on playing in an RD2L-like environment. This is not a ranking of players at their skill levels. Being lower than your Draft MMR position here doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re worse than your MMR. It just means that another player would be more powerful in a 3.8k average game, even if he would be astoundingly bad in your pubs.
- This ranking does NOT take into account my opinion on things and is most likely not extremely effective as a predictive model. If you want to look at an editorialized version of this, scroll down to the Editorialized Power Rankings.
A Tier
- MOCA — 6755 APP (Average Player Power)
2. Kalivunkka — 6519 APP
3. Give up dude — 6490 APP
4. Charles the Baboon — 6358 APP
5. JIVEE — 6282 APP
6. DoomCow33 — 6281 APP
7. steven — 6178 APP
8. Lemonardo — 6152 APP
B Tier
9. BBTM — 6127 APP
10. seven thirty — 6062 APP
11. Khillasaurus — 6051 APP
12. Jabinskiz — 5921 APP
13. StonedSpirit — 5868 APP
14. Maximus — 5829 APP
15. deadprez — 5790 APP
16. skaterx7 — 5744 APP
C Tier
17. Clare ❤ Teresa — 5561 APP
18. aeos — 5546 APP
19. Burrahobbit — 5471 APP
20. UltraGunner — 5396 APP
21. JonSquid — 5302 APP
22. Clueless — 5285 APP
23. FatSloth — 5272 APP
24. CRAP — 5240 APP
D Tier
25. Sharingan — 5212 APP
26. StarEnd 2.0 — 5189 APP
27. velvelvel — 5168 APP
28. Lucky — 5158 APP
29. FlyingNightmare™ — 5153 APP
30. TheMantis — 5023 APP
31. spidez — 5006 APP
32. MGHappyhobo — 4970 APP
F Tier
33. Polo5885 — 4883 APP
34. Jenny Death — 4858 APP
35. MAPPO — 4826 APP
36. bsvhsvj — 4752 APP
37. PrinceMeerkat92 — 4638 APP
38. BoX — 4179 APP
Editorialized Power Rankings
These are the rankings I created by adjusting the Algorithmic Power Rankings guided by the current standings and my personal opinion or experience with certain teams or players.
A preface I’d like you all to read before jumping right into the rankings:
- I don’t know many players personally and I don’t watch every single game. I have very cursory knowledge of most of the teams and a lot of my opinions are based on hearsay.
- I am not a very skilled player, so I might overvalue players higher MMR than me and undervalue those who are lower.
- This is in no way supposed to be a rankings based on how much I like certain players, captains or teams. I want to try to be as unbiased as I can, but there is no reason not to get second or third opinions for this.
A Tier
- Give up dude — 6490 APP — 4:0
This team is strong. Give up Dude might not be the best player in game, but he’s not dumb. Letting 109 fall this far in the draft was a mistake, and everyone before him in the draft order should be ashamed. PandaPGod is a very solid support and is extreme value for his MMR, as well as being the untilter of the team. Droziki is an extremely value player in my opinion, I considered picking him myself. Technique is a friend of Give up Dude so the chemistry is already there. I don’t know what to say, this team is beastly!
2. Sharingan — 5212 APP — 4:0
Sharingan’s draft is amazing, and I am really sorry that my algorithm considers it not that great. I explained why that’s the case in the discussion in the bottom of the article. Sharingan is a great Pos4 player. Ash The Toxic is his friend. Ellen Pudge is considered to be one of the best mid players in the pool. Bury and Neku seem to not suck, so I feel like this team is destined for greatness.
3. DoomCow33–6281 APP — 4:0
No matter what I said about Doomcow’s draft before, there is no denying its effectiveness. Zoompa is a support player who I could characterize by saying that his skill is like the Russian presidency. And by that I mean immutable. Halfcast is a player whose playstyle I really enjoy and I find his heroes really suit mine. Joric is the new Itachi, or so I heard, and if that’s the case, being drafted before he’s 5k he’s a luxury to have on your team. The only thing I would think holds back the team is DoomCow himself. I don’t feel like his hero pool suits the current meta, but who am I to judge? Nevertheless, I think this team will do extremely well and most likely will make playoffs.
4. deadprez — 5790 APP — 4:0
I really like Bloodninja. He is something of a natural wonder, or a mythical beast. I still believe he is a good player. I don’t believe that he’s worth his draft MMR at this point. I do however believe that he is better than most carries in the player pool. Frostychee is a very solid pos5 player so, coupled with Bloodninja, their safelane is ultra scary. I don’t think that can be said about their other lanes though. I didn’t see much mid games on deadprez so I am not quite sure how good he is at that role, and I’m hoping he can at least bash down 3k mids with a good rate of success. If that’s the case this team is playoff locked. If that isn’t the case, well, what can you do?
5. MOCA — 6755 APP — 2:2
Moca is a 5k mid player. That’s enough said about him. Ratman is a VERY solid pos4, and Fum6duck is in my opinion one of the highest value players in the pool. Combine that with the other two players not being absolute trash and you get a clear path to success for this team.
6. UltraGunner — 5396 APP — 2:2
Ultra is the second highest ranked player in the league. Ultra is a mid player. Ultra can win games by himself. FSnake is, from what I heard, a very competent carry. Little Duckie is one of the people I considered drafting. However, that’s where the good things end. Wicked_Sick, the 6kslayer, is playing off role. I don’t like forcing low ranked players to play roles they are not comfortable with. BB.347 is another core player playing off role. I believe that a strong team needs strong supports, and this just isn’t the case for this one. However, with how poor the mid pool was, Ultra can probably just carry this team to playoffs without sweating.
7. Clare ❤ Teresa — 5561 APP — 4:0
I don’t exactly know why Clare’s team is considered that great. Flocka is a very value pick, especially after adjustments. ButteryGreg is for sure a person who can at least draw mid against most teams in the division. Clare is a support Kunkka gamer, so most definitely a man of culture and due to his fast response to my message on a stream of all things is current BESTMIN. I can’t comment much on MidOrChen because his pool is weird and I don’t know what to call him. But Pearberr is a walking KEKW of a support player, and he was one of the people I would avoid drafting at all costs. Maybe he’ll show that he’s actually a galaxy brain player, but from the looks of his dbuff I find that highly unlikely.
8. Jabinskiz — 5921 APP — 2:2
This team in my opinion is overhyped as hell. 4leks is the lane drawer extraordinaire. In this player pool he’s well above average among mids, but his hero pool is very limited by the current meta. Newbycakes literally plays CM, Ogre or AA. Ban two of those and it’s gonna be a bad game for him, and he’s playing off role. Gharnef and Staylin are what in my opinion either make or break this team’s games. Gharnef’s insane space making and Staylin’s egregious space taking is what will win them games. Jabinskiz is Sand King. That’s about it.
B Tier
9. Kalivunkka — 6519 APP — 2:2
Oh look mom, I’m in the blog article! Our team isn’t as trash as most would believe. I like to think of myself as a decent pos4 player who is very successful with a good offlaner. I, however, am also probably a very bad captain. I like doing scouting, draft practice, player drafts. However, I am not a very calm person and am very quick to flame my teammates. Here is where Zen comes in: the guy’s either really calm or always high, so he can take over if I start throwing a temper tantrum. He also just so happens to be one of the better players in the pool. Danny Brown is a god among men and I’m sure he’ll go very far if he plays Dota consistently. His MMR hiked by about 500 by recalibration. 1980-SomethingSpaceGuy is a reliable carry. While his hero pool isn’t that in meta right now, he has shown great patience and will when playing heroes outside of his comfort zone. PatchThomas plays higher than his MMR, is a veteran RD2L player and also is very open to learning. I am almost sure that if I turn off my mic for the rest of the season we will be playoff-locked in no time.
10. skaterx7–5744 APP — 2:2
Big kudos to Skater for contacting me after the first article. Skater is a 5k mid. 5k mids are a precious resource and having one makes you able to win a lot of games based on that alone. Moreover, he’s the pos1 mid type, so that kind of tips the scales in favour of his team even more. Narte is a very good last pick and a solid pos5. Cookie has a decent pos4 hero pool and will be able to make space for Skater to win the game. Fatman is also a pos4, and one I would draft myself for an offlaner if I had to pick some other role first. Panda also seems to be a pos3/4 type. I think there’s a lot of role confusion here, and if that gets resolved that’s great, since that takes of a lot of load off of Skater’s shoulders. However, I don’t see a clear safelaner on this team and I feel like this is going to be a challenge to overcome for this team in the future.
11. Burrahobbit — 5471 APP — 2:2
Burra is a high MMR core player, making a lot of games easier if the enemy mid is not up to par. Reckless seems like a competent pos1. Jherky is a sub-50% overall WR player. I like Soranos as a person but he seems to have a sub-50% VHS WR in ranked matches, and in the one game I played with him I don’t think he did anything outstandingly good or bad. Heisenberg is a low MMR core player. I feel like this team has some problems in terms of their supports, but if the cores can just win their lanes, this team will be completely fine and dandy.
12. velvelvel — 5168 APP — 2:2
Vel is a 5k mid. I don’t think I should repeat myself. 5k mid = GIGA GOOD. Dixie is a very competent player, but I’m unsure if he has an offlaner pool that’s gonna win them games. The rest of their team scares me. Thrillhouse and MosquitoAssasin are low MMR sub-50% overall winrate players. I think Poncho is known to be a good player, but his KDA on most of his most played heroes make me think of him as a perpetual feeder and thus a liability. This team is probably gonna be either solo carried by Vel or it’s gonna lose. A lot.
13. Khillasaurus — 6051 APP — 2:2
Bambino is a 5k mid, though he wants to play pos4. Khillasaurus is a 3k mid with not so stellar statistics. ChowMains is a fairly solid carry player and Cerys seems to be pretty worth her salt on pos5, making their strongest lane their safe lane. However, they have a crucial flaw: they have a 2k pos4 and a 3k off-role pos3 (who might as well be 2k due to not playing his role). A lot of teams can just faceroll their offlane, like, for example, Jabinskiz’s team and just win the game from there. If they can win both mid and safe (which they should be somewhat good at doing, considering the player pool) they should be kinda good, but we need to see if that happens more often than not.
14. MGHappyhobo — 4970 APP — 3:1
This is a team with two 5ks. Neither of those 5ks is mid, which is a damn shame. Legion seems somewhat competent, but many of his most-played heroes have sub-50% winrates. Hobo is an outstanding offlaner. Elidoto2 is a 4k mid who plays cheese heroes with surprisingly low KDAs. The other two players are, let’s say, unsightly. Both of them are 2k core players who will be forced to be playing support. I don’t know who carries this team’s games. But overall, a team could be worse.
15. Charles the Baboon — 6358 APP — 2:2
Cam is a high 4k mid who pick cheesy heroes and actually does well on them. This team IS Cam. Why? Well, Xentavious is a pos4 player playing support, Effjai is a 4k carry with a sub-50% overall winrate and CommanderSanchez is a 2k core player playing pos5. Charles and Cam are the only players who are worth their salt on this team who are playing their roles. There are very few players in this league who can carry from pos4, and I don’t think Charles is one of them. If Cam does good, this team does good. If Cam doesn’t do good, well, you’re outta luck.
16. JIVEE — 6282 APP — 2:2
Remember how Charles’s team is Cam? Well, JIVEE’s team is Aug. JIVEE is a 4k mid player, but from my experience playing against him, he’s not that great. Their pos5 is basically a nerd in school whose basic purpose is to be bullied and farmed for lunch money. E_H seems to be a mid player playing offlane with weird KDAs, and their pos4 is fairly unimpressive.
C Tier
17. MAPPO — 4826 APP — 2:2
Inktachi coming through! Assuming that Inkognito is going to play 3 again this season, they have a recipe for success. Sad thing is, most of the other players on this team are kinda… meh. A 50% overall winrate safe laner who doesn’t basically play carry, a pos5 with sub-50% overall winrate who thought it was a great idea to have a man taking a dump as his RD2L profile picture and MAPPO, who thinks he can play pos4 Kunkka when he can’t. Yes, I’m still angry at you for that game. This team’s success lies in the hands of the Inktachi duo, and the burden of responsibility of these two brave souls isn’t lessened by their teammates.
18. FlyingNightmare™ — 5153 APP — 2:2
FN is a 6k mid player. Which is awesome. But this team’s strategy is very Pepeg. Stang mid is… interesting. I don’t think they should be giving up the advantage of having a 6k midlaner. Stang isn’t bad, but he should be playing carry. Count Scary Mothman is probably as value as 1k players come, so he’s not an issue. ChiD is a competent offlaner from the looks of it and Charkhil isn’t that bad. Overall, this team could be great if they stop placing Stang mid.
19. steven — 6178 APP — 1:3
Emu is a god gamer who can create space, but doesn’t like to rice. He was probably 3/5ths of the reason why our team was so successful in div4 mini. Rsp seems to be a player coming back to Dota with not that much success, with a 47% WR over the last three months. Wisp Khalifa is an average pos1 player, who my drunk Russian friend felt would throw games while reviewing the player pool. Dodecagon doesn’t seem to be that impressive of a pos4 and Steven, while absolutely a solid pos5, seems to be stricken by the Bloodninja pox and is barreling down the MMR ladder.
20. CRAP — 5240 APP — 2:2
Crap’s team is very solid. Crap is a 5k mid player who, from my experience, is very competent. Crap sometimes forgets about meta heroes and I feel like they often miscommunicate, so they leave some teammates exposed. DerpyDots, Kabobrocks and OneWing are all players I would have wanted to draft. The big problem here is they have a 2k pos 4. Both games we played I felt like they were playing 4v6. When playing on ES their pos4 had very little impact and we were very rarely afraid of being initiated upon, and in the Lina game I almost CRAPped my pants when he actually hit an LSA. Their weakest lane is definitely their offlane and I fear that might leave them vulnerable to a lot of the higher ranked teams.
21. JonSquid — 5302 APP — 2:2
JonSquid is a 5k mid player. 5k mid players are POG. Walrus and [] created are both players I considered drafting. Young Buck is an unimpressive low MMR support player with weird KDAs and winrates. Madrugada seems to be a good pos4 Earth Spirit player, but that’s about where good things about this team stop. For some obscure reason Madrugada is playing 4 while [] created is playing 3. [] created is a support player. I absolutely feel like this team could be much better if those two switched roles. Unless that happens, winning the game is basically JonSquid pulling three dead weights while Walrus hits creeps.
22. Lucky — 5158 APP — 2:2
This team is weird. They have two 5k offlane players, one 3k pos4 player, one 2k cheesy mid player and one extremely unimpressive carry player. Having a very bad pos5 and a very average carry player results in their safe lane being ultra weak. Often, I feel like teams like this lack people who play certain roles and it’s blatantly obvious here. Both Avenos and Lucky are competent players. But having both on the same team without dedicated supports kinda sucks. I think this team needs to find their roles properly or they will just lose games.
23. Clueless — 5285 APP — 2:2
Clueless is not a mid player. But Clueless is 5k. But Clueless basically plays Axe. It’s something of a conundrum and an enigma to me. With Bjorn’s hero pool being extra greedy and their best player being an offlaner this team appears to be an anti-synergy. Carn is a solid safelaner. HealthySnacks seems to be a good support. Only problem? They just don’t have a mid player. Who will play mid? Bjorn? Clueless? Carn? HealthySnacks? Hell if I know. They need to find that out, because I can’t.
And I am writing a separate paragraph about Flagon. As Treebeard said in his scouting sheet, he’s “in for a rude awakening.” Here’s Flagon’s player statement:
I am a longtime DotA player looking to re-sharpen my skills and play good, competitive games. Started playing in 2007 with DotA All-Stars…. boy a lot has changed. I usually play pos 4/5 in PUBs but can also play offlane and safe lane. Mid is my worst lane, but if we need it I can play that role. I can scrim 2–3 days per week, depending on my off-work schedule. Skill level: Above average Temperament: Excellent. I do not rage, I do not quit, I do not give up. I just play the game.
And here’s Flagon’s dotabuff:
Like, I get the whole old player wanting to become good at game again, but saying that your skill level is above average when you’re losing games as an Archon is just plain bizzare to me. This player statement and dotabuff combination are clear signs of a player who I personally would never draft. Sorry dude, I’m not trying to be mean to you, but some times you need to face reality.
24. FatSloth — 5272 APP — 2:2
FatSloth is a 5.8k player. He is playing safe lane for this team. That’s good. But the thing about FatSloth that I noticed after playing against him multiple times is that even if he smashes lane he kinda does nothing. He just farms there. Kepler is a 4.5k mid who I think is somewhat competent, but his KDAs seem very low for a mid. Pango Unchained is a sub-50% WR support player (where have I heard this line before?). Trishula hasn’t played a single Ranked VHS match that was recorded on Dotabuff. This just scares me. Vort’s most played mid heroes are sub-50% WR and his offlane pool is his only saving grace. With this in mind, this leads me to believe that this team is again basically headed by one player, and it being FatSloth, is probably one of the worse teams with that kind of main team idea. FatSloth is a good player, but I don’t feel like he can be the one to solo carry games like Ultra.
D Tier
25. TheMantis — 5023 APP — 3:1
TheMantis plays weird heroes. TheMantis isn’t that great on most conventional safe laners. From my experience playing against him, he might just feed. Pattern is a competent 5k mid. That is good. But I don’t feel like he can solo carry. From the looks of it, his hero pool is pretty limited and counterable. Danny is a very competent 3/4 player, which seems good in this pool. Vuvu seems like a competent pos5, but has low KDAs, which lead me to believe that he might feed against a strong offlane. The issue I find with this team is Jimmy Pesto pos3. Who would put a sub-50% WR 2k player on a core role? That’s the special kind of crazy that makes Mantis and his teams special. I feel like this is an understatement of this team’s potential, so I am looking forward to be proven wrong.
26. spidez — 5006 APP — 2:2
Spidez plays Kunkka and Necro, and Necro isn’t that good right now, which leaves him easily vulnerable to targeted bans. People tell me Forest Bear is good and I don’t disagree. They have Huntingod offlane, who has finally broken his lose streak. They also have a 2k sub-50% WR core and Poxie. Their safe lane is like a literal cash dispenser. You just need a competent pos3 and pos4 combo to crack it open and get all the money.
27. Polo5885–4883 APP — 2:2
They have two 5.4k players. Neither one of them is a mid player. NO! is okay mid, but I don’t think he plays to his MMR. Predict isn’t that good either. Every time I played against him (which, admittedly, isn’t a big sample size), he didn’t feel like a mover on a team that badly needs one. The bigger issue lies with the supports, however. It looks kind of like this:
This literal landmine of a player is one of the players I would avoid drafting at all costs. All the warning signs are there: sub-50% low mmr player AND a techies spammer at the same time. That’s a yikes if I ever seen one.
28. Jenny Death — 4858 APP — 1:3
First and foremost, who names their team “ooh ooh aahh aah monkey :)”? That’s gotta be one of the historic worst names in RD2L. Behraam and Saltpork are playing off-role, Jenny Death is anti-value for their MMR and, while being one of the best mid players in the pool, I don’t feel like Killuas can solo carry this team anywhere. This gotta be a dumpster fire of some kind during the player draft.
29. bsvhsvj — 4752 APP — 2:2
This is Team Anbokr. They have 3k mid, 3k offlane and 4k pos4. Their pos5 is 1k, and doesn’t seem to be on a winstreak to become relevant. Once POE season starts, this team may as well be dead. Beat anbokr — beat team bsvhsvj.
30. BoX — 4179 APP — 2:2
I don’t know why my algorithm hates team BoX so much. BoX is a 5k mid, which is good, but not an outstanding 5k mid. The story is kinda like that of Killuas. On the other hand, Lilith seems to be the kind of player to carry from pos3. Blackout is an ULTRA VALUE support, but the good stuff stops here. Gracious Papi is a sub-50% WR safe lane player, and their 2k pos4 is not only playing off role but also has “Free 6ix9ine” as his steam nickname. These two guys kind of ruin the whole party.
31. PrinceMeerkat92–4638 APP — 2:2
This team hasn’t played a single game. Leoj is known not-anti-value, Lutz is probably good, Al Clapone is a support I considered drafting. But then you realize they’ll probably have a 2.7k core player and 2.6k off role support player and start to feel like a Tide Pod or two would be juuust right to eat right now.
32. StonedSpirit — 5868 APP — 1:3
Huskie seems like a good player. Just right until you check his dotabuff. He has sub-50% WRs on his most played mid heroes. Microsoft Outlook, Woh and Milliard are value picks. Their captain is a very mediocre pos1 player, from the looks of his dotabuff page. The issue I have with this team is that its best players are neither its mid nor its carry. I don’t know who’s supposed to win games for them.
F Tier
33. Maximus — 5829 APP — 1:3
Maximus is a weird pos1 with low KDAs. Boh is a sub-50% WR low MMR support. Imphatic is a decent pos4 player. Fulcrum is a sub-50% WR 4k player who is playing off role. And Hexy is Hexy. Unless Hexy gets his hero every time and just carries this team due to the atrocious quality of this player pool, this team doesn’t have much of an outlook.
34. BBTM — 6127 APP — 1:3
BBTM seems like a good player, but I think it’s quite strange that he dropped to Ancient 4 from 5.4k MMR after the recalibration. He doesn’t seem like the kind of player to steamroll mid and then the game. M seems like a low MMR pos5 with a very limited hero pool, so banning him out will probably force him to feed. I like Mike, but HZ is a support player learning to play core, so he plays well below his actual MMR. Scrub is more or less a solid offlaner, not sure how good a pos4 he is though. And this leaves Mags. Mags doesn’t use mic. Mags was given a Night Stalker and somehow managed to lose. Mags is a player I for some reason have a 70+% winrate with. I don’t know what else to say about this team, it just doesn’t have anyone who just jumps out at you and screams “I’m gonna kill that ancient!.”
35. aeos — 5546 APP — 1:3
Phantasmal is a returning player who is probably not worth his MMR. Aeos is probably anti-value. Tenbu Horin is a relatively low MMR carry player who I doubt has it in him to actually carry his team. Ridin’ heelies seems like another gold piñata. The only decent player on this team is Doofgod, and he’s pos4. I sincerely doubt that he is going to win games for his team without an actual core player to rely upon.
36. seven thirty — 6062 APP — 0:4
Seven Thirty isn’t a mid player and he barely even plays Dota now. Agile seems to be a decent mid/safe lane player but he doesn’t strike me as someone who can solo carry games. Zeropoint doesn’t have a decent offlane hero pool and doesn’t look impressive overall. Mesothelioma barely plays Dota and is also playing off role. Xshal52 was a player I considered drafting but again, he’s pos4 and he’s relatively low MMR, so he won’t carry this team from the dumpster.
37. StarEnd 2.0–5189 APP — 0:4
StarEnd is a 5.7k mid player. That’s good. Mockingbird is a extremely underwhelming for his MMR. That’s bad. They have a value carry. That’s good. They have a low MMR offlaner for a pos4. That’s bad. They have a sub-50% low MMR pos5 who also plays Techies as pos5. That’s absolutely awful. StarEnd also barely plays, so who knows what saving grace there is for this team?
38. Lemonardo — 6152 APP — 0:4
George is an almost 5k offlaner. Mango Girl is an almost 4k offlaner. Krenn is an almost 3k pos5. Tiggles is a flat 3k pos5. See the problem yet? The only one without a role conflict is Lemonardo himself. Not just that, but none of these players are actually game winners by themselves. I don’t know how you end up with a draft this bad, but I guess someone had to bite the bullet of having to resolve people’s role preferences in an impossible puzzle. The only good thing about this team is that there exists synergy between George and Tiggles, but if friendship was all it took to win Dota then I’d be a middle-aged woman living in Nepal.
Updated Value Rankings
As always, some caveats:
- All the data is based off of Dotabuff. Some players may have some matches hidden or used smurfs to register. Those players are stinky.
- The MMR is based on the Draft Sheet.
- This is a ranking of the Draft. It is NOT a power ranking. This shows which captains, in my opinion, did the best job during the draft.
- This ranking does not take into account captain value. This was a conscious decision because you can’t exactly draft yourself.
A+ Tier
- Give up dude — 6947 APV (Average Player Value)
- Maximus — 6624 APV
- ♂K[A]livunkka♂ — 6342 APV
A Tier
4. Charles the Baboon — 5944 APV
5. mid or courier adventure — 5867 APV
6. BBTM — 5807 APV
7. seven thirty — 5752 APV
8. JIVEE — 5682 APV
B Tier
9. UltraGunner — 5675 APV
10. DoomCow33 — 5588 APV
11. Lemonardo — 5434 APV
12. steven — 5348 APV
13. Khillasaurus — 5154 APV
14. skaterx7 — 5132 APV
15. Jabinskiz — 5065 APV
16. FlyingNightmare™ — 4859 APV
C Tier
17. StonedSpirit — 4777 APV
18. JonSquid — 4750 APV
19. Clare ❤ Teresa — 4659 APV
20. Clueless — 4577 APV
21. deadprez — 4508 APV
22. Burrahobbit — 4484 APV
23. velvelvel — 4326 APV
24. Lucky — 4247 APV
D Tier
25. StarEnd 2.0 — 4213 APV
26. CRAP — 4202 APV
27. aeos — 4196 APV
28. Jenny Death — 4173 APV
29. spidez — 4163 APV
30. Polo5885 — 4125 APV
31. FatSloth — 4082 APV
32. PrinceMeerkat92 — 4077 APV
F Tier
33. Sharingan — 4049 APV
34. TheMantis — 3870 APV
35. MGHappyhobo — 3595 APV
36. MAPPO — 3577 APV
37. BoX — 3371 APV
38. bsvhsvj — 3083 APV
Methodology
Value Definition:
A valuable player is a player who performs better than their Draft MMR in an environment similar to RD2L.
Success Factor
In total, there were 10000 flat points distributed among 4 Categories: Very High Skill Score, Recent Very High Skill Score, High Skill Score and Normal Skill Score. Very High Skill had 7500 points spread across overall games and recent games equally. High Skill had 1750 points and Normal Skill had 750 points allocated to them. Your winrate in those skill brackets determined how many of the points you would get.
Experience Factor (REWORKED)
After analysing the results of the previous value ranking I came to the conclusion that I overvalued experience and made it significantly more important than success. That’s why some players had extremely outlandish scores compared to others. The new Experience Factor may add up to 50% of the Total Point Cap of the specific Skill Score to the Success Factor, but the result may not exceed the Skill Score Cap. This way, no matter how experienced a player is, there will be a limit as to how much that will carry them.
Value Factor (UPDATED)
Value Factor Eqn:
(Player MMR — Highest MMR)²/(Average MMR)²
Value Multiplier Eqn: (Lowered maximum multiplier to 4)
(Current Score/Maximum Current Score)*3+1
Discussion
Fail 1:
The results of this version of my algorithm surprised me quite a bit. I feel there are some good things and some bad things about it. First things first, my team is in the A+ tier! That would be good if I didn’t I knew why that was the case. I have solid 1st through 3d picks, and then my 4th pick was a 2k player.
Patch does play above his MMR. But this number is heavily inflated. Why? Well, because of this:
See how he has 3 games in VHS this month with a 66% WR? Well, that means he got 66% of 3750 points for his recent VHS games. With the previous model, the 3 games would make this a non-issue since a lack of experience could decrease your score in a category. However, this model doesn’t do that.
Fail 2
Team Sharingan had been hailed as a great team since the day of the draft. I absolutely agree that it’s a great team. My algorithm doesn’t though.
Why is that? Well, another one of the edge cases of my model is that player who have little to no VHS games are gonna get basically no points, and Ash the Toxic is a perfect example of that.
According to Dotabuff, Ash the Toxic (at the moment of me getting the data from Dotabuff), hasn’t played any ranked VHS matches. Neither did Ash play any ranked HS matches. So Ash only got 500 points from his NS games. And even with a 3x multiplier, it only amounted to about 1k points after rescaling.
I can infer from this that some teams who have newer players or players who play extremely casually are undervalued in the results.
Fail 3
That team is also an example of another problem:
I heard that Ellen Pudge is a good player. I don’t know if that’s true or not, but I feel like a score of 3.3k is very low for the 6ths highest player in the pool. When compared to NO!, we can discern that the reason that Ellen Pudge has such a low score is that Ellen Pudge got 0 points for HS games.
I can infer from this that some high MMR players with new accounts or really old accounts (meaning that they didn’t get to play HS games from the very beginning) will be undervalued. This may also apply to accounts who have a lot of Unknown skill games, or those who almost exclusively play with a stack around their MMR.
Win 1
Now, turning to the good sides of this change. First and foremost, the range of team values got squished significantly. The ranks used to range between 1.8k and 12.5k. Now the numbers only range between 3k and 7k. The spread is now about 2.7 times less than before. This is good because it allows people to more easily compare teams. Not only that, but the proportions didn’t stay the same either. Whereas the worst team before was 6 times as bad as the worst team now, the worst team with this model is only 2.3 times as bad. The proportions also shrunk between the teams, so I feel like this made the rankings more accurate, as the previous one was very wild and, I feel, unrealistic with the drafting system in place.
Win 2
Agile is no longer the most valuable player in the draft. I would agree with that result. And this isn’t just a flame of Agile. I don’t think he’s bad. I just don’t think that he’s ULTRA VALUE. What this boils down to is that experience now has a very limited impact on the score of a player, thus making average players with a ton of experience worth significantly less than they were before, which, in my opinion, is a win.
Win 3
I fixed the missing players issue. It turns out, some players changed names on the website after the draft, while some other players didn’t have a profile there entirely. I made a stupid workaround, but that stopped the values of teams like team Ultragunner from tanking.
